Is It Possible For Missouri State to Grow Larger Than Mizzou?

Students and alumni of Missouri State (and perhaps some of the University of Missouri) at times wonder if MSU will ever become the largest university in the state. While past trends are never a perfect predictor of the future, looking at the enrollment patterns of each institution can help offer an answer. Here are the total student growths since 2005.

Mizzou
Via its Student Body Profile reports and enrollment summary (Columbia campus):

2005 – 27,985
2006 – 28,253
2007 – 28,477
2008 – 30,200
2009 – 31,314
2010 – 32,415
2011 – 33,805
2012 – 34,748
2013 – 34,658
2014 – 35,441
2015 – 35,448
2016 – 33,266
2017 – 30,870
2018 – 29,866
2019 – 30,046
2020 – 31,103
2021 – 31,412

Missouri State
Via its enrollment history report (Springfield campus):

2005 – 19,165
2006 – 19,464
2007 – 19,705
2008 – 19,925
2009 – 20,842
2010 – 20,949
2011 – 20,802
2012 – 21,059
2013 – 21,798
2014 – 22,385
2015 – 22,834
2016 – 24,116
2017 – 24,350
2018 – 24,390
2019 – 24,126
2020 – 24,163
2021 – 23,618

In the past 16 years, MSU gained on average 278.3 new students each Fall. Mizzou gained 214.2 new students per year, an average tanked by the September 2015 racism controversy. Before the controversy (2005-2015 data), Mizzou gained 746.3 new students per year (MSU, over the same ten years, +366.9). From a low point in 2018, Mizzou has since, over a three-year period, gained on average 515.3 new students (over the same time, MSU saw -257.3 students — one school’s gain is often the other’s loss). This is too short a timeframe to draw unquestionable conclusions, but with Mizzou back on its feet it seems likely to continue to acquire more students on average each year, making MSU’s ascension to the top unlikely.

Predicting future enrollment patterns is rather difficult, of course. Over the past decade, fewer Americans have attended university, including fewer Missourians — and that was before COVID. Like a pandemic or a controversy, some disruptors cannot be predicted, nor can boosts to student populations. But most challenges will be faced by both schools: fewer young people, better economic times (which draws folks to the working world), pandemics, etc. The rising cost of college may give a university that is slightly more affordable an edge, as has been Missouri State’s long-time strategy. An increased profile through growing name recognition (it’s only been 16 years since Missouri State’s name change), success in sports, clever marketing schemes (alumnus John Goodman is now involved with MSU), ending Mizzou’s near-monopoly on doctoral degrees, and so on could make a difference, but there remains a huge advantage to simply being an older school, with a head-start in enrollment and brand recognition.

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COVID Showed Americans Don’t Leech Off Unemployment Checks

In most states, during normal times, you can use unemployment insurance for at most 26 weeks, half the year, and will receive 30-50% of the wages from your previous job, up to a certain income. This means $200-400 a week on average. One must meet a list of requirements to qualify, for instance having been fired from a job due to cutbacks, not through fault of your own. Only 35-40% of unemployed persons receive UI.

This means that at any given time, about 2 million Americans are receiving UI; in April/May 2020, with COVID-19 and State measures to prevent its spread causing mass firings, that number skyrocketed to 22 million. Put another way, just 1-3% of the workforce is usually using UI, and during the pandemic spike it was about 16%. Just before that rise, it was at 1.5% — and it returned to that rate in November 2021, just a year and a half later. Indeed, the number of recipients fell as fast as it shot up, from 16% to under 8% in just four months (September 2020), down to 4% in six months (November 2020). As much pearl-clutching as there was among conservatives (at least those who did not use UI) over increased dependency, especially with the temporary $600 federal boost to UI payments, tens of millions of Americans did not leech off the system. They got off early, even though emergency measures allowed them to stay on the entire year of 2020 and into the first three months of 2021! (The trend was straight down, by the way, even before the $600 boost ended.)

This in fact reflects what we’ve always known about unemployment insurance. It’s used as intended, as a temporary aid to those in financial trouble (though many low-wage workers don’t have access to it, which must be corrected). Look at the past 10 years of UI use. The average stay in the program (“duration”) each year was 17 or 18 weeks in times of economic recovery, 14 or 15 weeks in better economic times (sometimes even fewer). Four months or so, then a recipient stops filing for benefits, having found a job or ameliorated his or her crisis in some fashion. Some “enjoy” the 30-50% of previous wages for the whole stretch, but the average recipient doesn’t even use UI for 20 weeks, let alone the full 26 allowed. This makes sense, given how much of a pay cut UI is. Again, many Americans stop early, and the rest are cut off — so why all the screaming about leeching? Only during the COVID crisis did the average duration climb higher, to 26-27 weeks, as the federal government offered months of additional aid, as mentioned — again, many did not receive benefits for as long as they could have.

Those that receive benefits will not necessarily do the same next year. In times of moderate unemployment, for example, about 30% of displaced workers and 50% of workers on temporary layoff who receive benefits in Year 1 will reapply for benefits in Year 2. The rest do not refile.

However, we must be nuanced thinkers. Multiple things can be true at the same time. UI can also extend unemployment periods, which makes a great deal of sense even if UI benefits represent a drastic pay cut. UI gives workers some flexibility to be more selective in the job hunt. An accountant who has lost her position may, with some money coming in and keeping a savings account afloat, be able to undertake a longer search for another accounting job, rather than being forced to take the first thing she can find, such as a waitressing job. This extra time is important, because finding a similar-wage job means you can keep your house or current apartment, won’t fall further into poverty, etc. There are many factors behind the current shortage of workers, and UI seems to be having a small effect (indeed, studies range between no effect and moderate effects). And of course, in a big, complex world there will be some souls who avoid work as long as they can, and others who commit fraud (during COVID, vast sums were siphoned from our UI by individuals and organized crime rings alike, in the U.S. and from around the globe; any human being with internet access can attempt a scam). But that’s not most Americans. While UI allows workers to be more selective, prolonging an unemployed term a bit, they nevertheless generally stop filing for benefits early and avoid going back.

To summarize, for the conservatives in the back. The U.S. labor force is 161 million people. A tiny fraction is being aided by UI at any given moment. Those that are generally don’t stay the entire time they could. Those who do use 26 weeks of benefits will be denied further aid for the year (though extended benefits are sometimes possible in states with rising unemployment). Most recipients don’t refile the next year. True, lengths of unemployment may be increased some, and there will always be some Americans who take advantage of systems like this, but most people would prefer not to, instead wanting what all deserve — a good job, with a living wage.

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Comparative Power

The practice of reconstructing the past, with all its difficulties and incompleteness, is aided by comparative study. Historians, anthropologists, sociologists, and other researchers can learn a great deal about their favored society and culture by looking at others. This paper makes that basic point, but, more significantly, makes a distinction between the effectiveness of drawing meaning from cultural similarity/difference and doing the same from one’s own constructed cultural analogy, while acknowledging both are valuable methods. In other words, it is argued here that the historian who documents similarities and differences between societies stands on firmer methodological ground for drawing conclusions about human cultures than does the historian who is forced to fill in gaps in a given historical record by studying other societies in close geographic and temporal proximity. Also at a disadvantage is the historian working comparatively with gaps in early documentation that are filled in later documentation. This paper is a comparison of comparative methods — an important exercise, because such methods are often wielded due to a dearth of evidence in the archives. The historian should understand the strengths and limitations of various approaches (here reciprocal comparison, historical analogy, and historiographic comparison) to this problem.

To begin, a look at reciprocal comparison and the meaning derived from such an effort, derived specifically from likenesses or distinctions. Historian Robert Darnton found meaning in differences in The Great Cat Massacre: and Other Episodes in French Cultural History. What knowledge, Darnton wondered in his opening chapter, could we gain of eighteenth century French culture by looking at peasant folk tales and contrasting them to versions found in other places in Europe? Whereas similarities might point to shared cultural traits or norms, differences would isolate the particular mentalités of French peasants, how they viewed the world and what occupied their thoughts, in the historical tradition of the Annales School.[1] So while the English version of Tom Thumb was rather “genial,” with helpful fairies, attention to costume, and a titular character engaging in pranks, in the French version the Tom Thumb character, Poucet, was forced to survive in a “harsh, peasant world” against “bandits, wolves, and the village priest by using his wits.”[2] In a tale of a doctor cheating Death, the German version saw Death immediately kill the doctor; with a French twist, the doctor got away with his treachery for some time, becoming prosperous and living to old age — cheating paid off.[3] Indeed, French tales focused heavily on survival in a bleak and brutal world, and on this world’s particularities. Characters with magical wishes asked for food and full bellies, they got rid of children who did not work, put up with cruel step-mothers, and encountered many beggars on the road.[4] Most folk tales mix fictional elements like ogres and magic with socio-economic realities from the place and time they are told, and therefore the above themes reflect the ordinary lives of French peasants: hunger, poverty, the early deaths of biological mothers, begging, and so on.[5] In comparing French versions with those of the Italians, English, and Germans, Darnton noticed unique fixations in French peasant tales and then contrasted these obsessions with the findings of social historians on the material conditions of peasant life, bringing these things together to find meaning, to create a compelling case for what members of the eighteenth century French lower class thought about day to day and their attitudes towards society.

Now, compare Darnton’s work to ethno-historian Helen Rountree’s “Powhatan Indian Women: The People Captain John Smith Barely Saw.” Rountree uses ethnographic analogy, among other tools, to reconstruct the daily lives of Powhatan women in the first years of the seventeenth century. Given that interested English colonizers had limited access to Powhatan women and a “cloudy lens” of patriarchal eurocentrism through which they observed native societies, and given that the Powhatans left few records themselves, Rountree uses the evidence of daily life in nearby Eastern Woodland tribes to describe the likely experiences of Powhatan women.[6] For example: “Powhatan women, like other Woodland Indian women, probably nurse their babies for well over a year after birth, so it would make sense to keep baby and food source together” by bringing infants into the fields with them as the women work.[7] Elsewhere “probably” is dropped for more confident takes: “Powhatan men and women, like those in other Eastern Woodland tribes, would have valued each other as economic partners…”[8] A lack of direct archival knowledge of Powhatan society and sentiments is shored up through archival knowledge of other native peoples living in roughly the same time and region. The meaning Rountree derives from ethnographic analogy, alongside other techniques and evidence, is that the English were wrong, looking through their cloudy lens, to believe Powhatan women suffered drudgery and domination under Powhatan men. Rather, women experienced a great deal of autonomy, as well as fellowship and variety, in their work, and were considered co-equal partners with men in the economic functioning of the village.[9]  

Both Darnton and Rountree admit their methods have challenges where evidence is concerned. Darnton writes that his examination of folktales is “distressingly imprecise in its deployment of evidence,” the evidence is “vague,” because the tales were written down much later — exactly how they were orally transmitted at the relevant time cannot be known.[10] In other words, what if the aspect of a story one marks as characteristic of the French peasant mentalité was not actually in the verbal telling of the tale? It is a threat to the legitimacy of the project. Rountree is careful to use “probably” and “likely” with most of her analogies; the “technique is a valid basis for making inferences if used carefully” (emphasis added), and one must watch out for the imperfections in the records of other tribes.[11] For what if historical understanding of another Eastern Woodland tribe is incorrect, and the falsity is copied over to the narrative of the Powhatan people? Rountree and Darnton acknowledge the limitations of their methods even while firmly believing they are valuable for reconstructing the past. This paper does not dispute that — however, it would be odd if all comparative methods were created equal.

Despite its challenges, reciprocal comparison rests on safer methodological ground, for it at least boasts two actually existing elements to contrast. For instance, Darnton has in his possession folktales from France and from Germany, dug up in the archives, and with them he can notice differences and thus derive meaning about how French peasants viewed the world. Such meaning may be incorrect, but is less likely to be so with support from research on the material conditions of those who might be telling the tales, as mentioned. Rountree, on the other hand, wields a tool that works with but one existing element. Historical, cultural, or ethnographic analogy takes what is known about other peoples and applies it to a specific group suffering from a gap in the historical record. This gap, a lack of direct evidence, is filled with an assumption — which may simply be wrong, without support from other research, like Darnton enjoys, to help out (to have such research would make analogy unnecessary). Obviously, an incorrect assumption threatens to derail derived meaning. If the work of Powhatan women differed in a significant way from other Eastern Woodland tribes, unseen and undiscovered and even silenced by analogy, the case of Powhatan economic equality could weaken. Again, this is not to deny the method’s value, only to note the danger that it carries compared to reciprocal comparison. Paradoxically, the inference that Powhatan society resembled other tribes nearby seems as probable and reasonable as it is bold, risky.

Similarly, Michel-Rolph Trouillot, in Silencing the Past: Power and the Production of History, also found meaning with absence when examining whether Henri Christophe, monarch of Haiti after its successful revolution against the French from 1791 to 1804, was influenced by Frederick the Great of Prussia when Christophe named his new Milot palace “San Souci.” Was the palace named after Frederick’s own in Potsdam, or after Colonel San Souci, a revolutionary rival Christophe killed? Trouillot studied the historical record and found that opportunities for early observers to mention a Potsdam-Milot connection were suspiciously ignored.[12] For example, Austro-German geographer Karl Ritter, a contemporary of Christophe, repeatedly described his palace as “European” but failed to mention it was inspired by Frederick’s.[13] British consul Charles Mackenzie, “who visited and described San Souci less than ten years after Christophe’s death, does not connect the two palaces.”[14] Why was a fact that was such a given for later writers not mentioned early on if it was true?[15] These archival gaps of course co-exist with Trouillot’s positive evidence (“Christophe built San Souci, the palace, a few yards away from — if not exactly — where he killed San Souci, the man”[16]), but are used to build a case that Christophe had Colonel San Souci in mind when naming his palace, a detail that evidences an overall erasure of the colonel from history.[17] By contrasting the early historical record with the later one, Trouillot finds truth and silencing.

This historiographic comparison is different from Rountree’s historical analogy. Rountree fills in epistemological gaps about Powhatan women with the traits of nearby, similar cultures; Trouillot judges the gaps in early reports about Haiti’s San Souci palace to suggest later writers were in error and participating in historical silencing (he, like Darnton, is working with two existing elements and weighs the differences). Like Rountree’s, Trouillot’s method is useful and important: the historian should always seek the earliest writings from relevant sources to develop an argument, and if surprising absences exist there is cause to be suspicious that later works created falsities. However, this method too flirts with assumption. It assumes the unwritten is also the unthought, which is not always the case. It may be odd or unlikely that Mackenzie or Ritter would leave Potsdam unmentioned if they believed in its influence, but not impossible or unthinkable. It further assumes a representative sample size — Trouillot is working with very few early documents. Would the discovery of more affect his thesis? As we see with Trouillot and Rountree, and as one might expect, a dearth in the archives forces assumptions.

While Trouillot’s conclusion is probable, he is nevertheless at greater risk of refutation than Darnton or, say, historian Kenneth Pomeranz, who also engaged in reciprocal comparison when he put China beside Europe during the centuries before 1800. Unlike the opening chapter of The Great Cat Massacre, The Great Divergence finds meaning in similarities as well as differences. Pomeranz seeks to understand why Europe experienced an Industrial Revolution instead of China, and must sort through many posited causal factors. For instance, did legal and institutional structures more favorable to capitalist development give Europe an edge, contributing to greater productivity and efficiency?[18] Finding similar regulatory mechanisms like interest rates and property rights, and a larger “world of surprising resemblances” before 1750, Pomeranz argued for other differences: Europe’s access to New World resources and trade, as well as to coal.[19] This indicates that Europe’s industrialization occurred not due to the superior intentions, wisdom, or industriousness of Europeans but rather due to unforeseen, fortunate happenings, or “conjunctures” that “often worked to Western Europe’s advantage, but not necessarily because Europeans created or imposed them.”[20] Reciprocal comparison can thus break down eurocentric perspectives by looking at a broader range of historical evidence. No assumptions need be made (rather, assumptions, such as those about superior industriousness, can be excised). As obvious as it is to write, a wealth of archival evidence, rather than a lack, makes for safer methodological footing, as does working with two existing evidentiary elements, no risky suppositions necessary.

A future paper might muse further on the relationship between analogy and silencing, alluded to earlier — if Trouillot is correct and a fact-based narrative is built on silences, how much more problematic is the narrative based partly on analogy?[21] As for this work, in sum, the historian must use some caution with historical analogy, historiographic comparison, and other tools that have an empty space on one side of the equation. These methods are hugely important and often present theses of high probability. But they are by nature put at risk by archival gaps; reciprocal comparison has more power in its derived meanings and claims about other cultures of the past — by its own archival nature.

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[1] Anna Green and Kathleen Troup, eds., The Houses of History: A Critical Reader in Twentieth-Century History and Theory, 2nd ed. (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2016), 111.

[2] Robert Darnton, The Great Cat Massacre: And Other Episodes in French Cultural History (New York: Basic Books, 1984), 42.

[3] Ibid, 47-48.

[4] Ibid, 29-38.

[5] Ibid, 23-29.

[6] Helen C. Rountree, “Powhatan Indian Women: The People Captain John Smith Barely Saw,” Ethnohistory 45, no. 1 (winter 1998): 1-2.

[7] Ibid, 4.

[8] Ibid, 21.

[9] Ibid, 22.

[10] Darnton, Cat Massacre, 261.

[11] Rountree, “Powhatan,” 2.

[12] Michel-Rolph Trouillot, Silencing the Past: Power and the Production of History (Boston: Beacon Press, 1995), 61-65.

[13] Ibid, 63-64.

[14] Ibid, 62.

[15] Ibid, 64.

[16] Ibid, 65.

[17] Ibid, chapters 1 and 2.

[18] Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000), chapters 3 and 4.

[19] Ibid, 29, 279-283.

[20] Ibid, 4.

[21] Trouillot, Silencing, 26-27.

Will Capitalism Lead to the One-Country World?

In Why America Needs Socialism, I offered a long list of ways the brutalities and absurdities of capitalism necessitate a better system, one of greater democracy, worker ownership, and universal State services. The work also explored the importance of internationalism, moving away from nationalistic ideas (the simpleminded worship of one’s country) and toward an embrace of all peoples — a world with one large nation. Yet these ideas could have been more deeply connected. The need for internationalism was largely framed as a response to war, which, as shown, can be driven by capitalism but of course existed before it and thus independently of it. The necessity of a global nation was only briefly linked to global inequality, disastrous climate change, and other problems. In other words, one could predict that the brutalities and absurdities of international capitalism, such as the dreadful activities of transnational corporations, will push humanity toward increased global political integration.

As a recent example of a (small) step toward political integration, look at the 2021 agreement of 136 nations to set a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% and tax multinational companies where they operate, not just where they are headquartered. This historic moment was a response to corporations avoiding taxes via havens in low-tax countries, moving headquarters, and other schemes. Or look to the 2015 Paris climate accords that set a collective goal of limiting planetary warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius, a response to the environmental damage wrought by human industry since the Industrial Revolution. There is a recognition that a small number of enormous companies threaten the health of all people. Since the mid-twentieth century, many international treaties have focused on the environment and labor rights (for example, outlawing forced labor and child labor, which were always highly beneficial and profitable for capitalists). The alignment of nations’ laws is a remarkable step toward unity. Apart from war and nuclear weapons, apart from the global inequality stemming from geography (such as an unlucky lack of resources) or history (such as imperialism), the effects and nature of modern capitalism alone scream for the urgency of internationalism. Capital can move about the globe, businesses seeking places with weaker environmental regulations, minimum wages, and safety standards, spreading monopolies, avoiding taxes, poisoning the biosphere, with an interconnected global economy falling like a house of cards during economic crises. The movement of capital and the interconnectivity of the world necessitate further, deeper forms of international cooperation.

Perhaps, whether in one hundred years or a thousand, humanity will realize that the challenges of multi-country accords — goals missed or ignored, legislatures refusing to ratify treaties, and so on — would be mitigated by a unified political body. A single human nation could address tax avoidance, climate change, and so on far more effectively and efficiently.

On the other hand, global capitalism may lead to a one-nation world in a far more direct way. Rather than the interests of capitalists spurring nations to work together to confront said interests, it may be that nations integrate to serve certain interests of global capitalism, to achieve unprecedented economic growth. The increasing integration of Europe and other regions provides some insight. The formation of the European Union’s common market eliminated taxes and customs between countries, and established a free flow of capital, goods, services, and workers, generating around €1 trillion in economic benefit annually. The EU market is the most integrated in the world, alongside the Caribbean Single Market and Economy, both earning sixes out of seven on the scale of economic integration, one step from merging entirely. Other common markets exist as well, being fives on the scale, uniting national economies in Eurasia, Central America, the Arabian Gulf, and South America; many more have been proposed. There is much capitalists enjoy after single market creation: trade increases, production costs fall, investment spikes, profits rise. Total economic and political unification may be, again, more effective and efficient still. Moving away from nations and toward worldwide cohesion could be astronomically beneficial to capitalism. Will the push toward a one-nation world come from the need to reign in capital, to serve capital, or both?

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When The Beatles Sang About Killing Women

Move over, Johnny Cash and “Cocaine Blues.” Sure, “Early one mornin’ while making the rounds / I took a shot of cocaine and I shot my woman down… Shot her down because she made me slow / I thought I was her daddy but she had five more” are often the first lyrics one thinks of when considering the violent end of the toxic masculinity spectrum in white people music. (Is this not something you ponder? Confront more white folk who somehow only see these things in black music, you’ll get there.) But The Beatles took things to just as dark a place.

Enter “Run For Your Life” from their 1965 album Rubber Soul, a song as catchy as it is chilling: “You better run for your life if you can, little girl / Hide your head in the sand, little girl / Catch you with another man / That’s the end.” Jesus. It’s jarring, the cuddly “All You Need Is Love” boy band singing “Well, I’d rather see you dead, little girl / Than to be with another man” and “Let this be a sermon / I mean everything I’ve said / Baby, I’m determined / And I’d rather see you dead.” But jealous male violence in fact showed up in other Beatles songs as well, and in the real world, with the self-admitted abusive acts and attitudes of John Lennon, later regretted but no less horrific for it.

This awfulness ensured The Beatles would be viewed by many of posterity as a contradictory element, with proto-feminist themes and ideas of the 1960s taking root in their music alongside possessive, murderous sexism. That is, if these things are noticed at all.

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