Students and alumni of Missouri State (and perhaps some of the University of Missouri) at times wonder if MSU will ever become the largest university in the state. While past trends are never a perfect predictor of the future, looking at the enrollment patterns of each institution can help offer an answer. Here are the total student growths since 2005.

Mizzou
Via its Student Body Profile reports and enrollment summary (Columbia campus):

2005 – 27,985
2006 – 28,253
2007 – 28,477
2008 – 30,200
2009 – 31,314
2010 – 32,415
2011 – 33,805
2012 – 34,748
2013 – 34,658
2014 – 35,441
2015 – 35,448
2016 – 33,266
2017 – 30,870
2018 – 29,866
2019 – 30,046
2020 – 31,103
2021 – 31,412

Missouri State
Via its enrollment history report (Springfield campus):

2005 – 19,165
2006 – 19,464
2007 – 19,705
2008 – 19,925
2009 – 20,842
2010 – 20,949
2011 – 20,802
2012 – 21,059
2013 – 21,798
2014 – 22,385
2015 – 22,834
2016 – 24,116
2017 – 24,350
2018 – 24,390
2019 – 24,126
2020 – 24,163
2021 – 23,618

In the past 16 years, MSU gained on average 278.3 new students each Fall. Mizzou gained 214.2 new students per year, an average tanked by the September 2015 racism controversy. Before the controversy (2005-2015 data), Mizzou gained 746.3 new students per year (MSU, over the same ten years, +366.9). From a low point in 2018, Mizzou has since, over a three-year period, gained on average 515.3 new students (over the same time, MSU saw -257.3 students — one school’s gain is often the other’s loss). This is too short a timeframe to draw unquestionable conclusions, but with Mizzou back on its feet it seems likely to continue to acquire more students on average each year, making MSU’s ascension to the top unlikely.

Predicting future enrollment patterns is rather difficult, of course. Over the past decade, fewer Americans have attended university, including fewer Missourians — and that was before COVID. Like a pandemic or a controversy, some disruptors cannot be predicted, nor can boosts to student populations. But most challenges will be faced by both schools: fewer young people, better economic times (which draws folks to the working world), pandemics, etc. The rising cost of college may give a university that is slightly more affordable an edge, as has been Missouri State’s long-time strategy. An increased profile through growing name recognition (it’s only been 16 years since Missouri State’s name change), success in sports, clever marketing schemes (alumnus John Goodman is now involved with MSU), ending Mizzou’s near-monopoly on doctoral degrees, and so on could make a difference, but there remains a huge advantage to simply being an older school, with a head-start in enrollment and brand recognition.

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