On Superdelegates

February 2016 headlines from The New York Times, Democracy Now, and liberal website U.S. Uncut declared, respectively, “Delegate Count Leaving Bernie Sanders With Steep Climb,” “Could Unelected Superdelegates Give Clinton the Nomination Even if Sanders Wins the Primaries?,” and “The DNC Just Screwed Over Bernie Sanders and Spit in Voters’ Faces,” fueling near-panic among many Bernie Sanders supporters.

At issue are the “superdelegates,” Democratic Party leaders from each state who can vote for any candidate at the Democratic National Convention, regardless of the primary or caucus result of their state. Superdelegates are distinct from “pledged delegates,” supporters of a specific candidate awarded to their candidate based on primary or caucus outcome.

Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz explained, “Unpledged delegates exist really to make sure that party leaders and elected officials don’t have to be in a position where they are running against grassroots activists.” This statement, honest considering the history of superdelegates, outraged many who back Sanders.

Currently, with the Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada contests behind them, Clinton and Sanders each have 51 pledged delegates (Iowa and Nevada were extraordinarily close, and Sanders won New Hampshire soundly).

But Clinton has 451 superdelegates to Sanders’ 19.

There are 712 superdelegates total. 2,383 total delegates, pledged and super, are needed to secure the nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in July.

Sites like U.S. Uncut warn Clinton’s “deep connections within the political establishment,” her loyal superdelegates, could determine the election, undermining democracy and overruling the vote of the people and the delegates they won for their candidate. They encouraged citizens to sign a petition demanding superdelegates conform to the will of the voters.

Senator Patrick Leahy, one of Vermont’s superdelegates, publicly announced he will vote for Clinton at the Convention even if Sanders wins Vermont. Which is likely, as Sanders is a senator from Vermont and holds a commanding lead in the polls.

But Paste Magazine argues that “establishment figures want to scare you with superdelegates,” wondering “if the explicit goal is to have a chilling effect on participation, and to discourage passionate people from participating in our democracy…” It points out:

Superdelegates have never decided a Democratic nomination. It would be insane, even by the corrupt standards of the Democratic National Committee, if a small group of party elites went against the will of the people to choose the presidential nominee.

This has already been an incredibly tense election, and Sanders voters are already expressing their unwillingness to vote for Clinton in the general election. When you look at the astounding numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire, where more than 80 percent of young voters have chosen Sanders over Clinton, regardless of gender, it’s clear that Clinton already finds herself in a very tenuous position for the general election. It will be tough to motivate young supporters, but any hint that Bernie was screwed by the establishment will result in total abandonment.

Democrats win when turnout is high, and if the DNC decides to go against the will of the people and force Clinton down the electorate’s throat, they’d be committing political suicide.

In the Democracy Now article cited above, David Rhode, political science professor at Duke University, when asked if Sanders could win the pledged delegates but lose because of superdelegates, replied:

It is possible. I don’t think it’s very likely. I mean, it’s funny, as I’ve had this kind of conversation eight years ago, when Obama and Clinton were facing off, talking to people from the media. And the reality is that, especially when there are only two candidates, the likelihood is that this is going to be settled long before the convention happens. And so, we’re not going to go down to the wire and have the superdelegates decide the outcome. It’s possible that it will happen, but it’s extremely unlikely, I think.

Yet Matt Karp, professor of history at Princeton University, also being interviewed, pointed out Sanders has so few superdelegates in his camp at this point it could “create a situation that I think is going to put the system to the test in a way that the 2008 campaign didn’t necessarily do.”

Alternet said the “panic” over superdelegates was “rooted in lazy reporting.” The emphasis on Clinton’s superdelegate lead “plays well with Sanders supporters who have a deep distrust of the party establishment” but there is little chance “they will come into play in the first place.”

…It’s hard to imagine the super delegates would dare to buck the will of Democratic primary voters by swinging the count to Clinton’s favor…

David Karol, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland and author of The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform, told me that “there is no historical evidence that super delegates have the backbone to go against a candidate who is leading the primary and caucus voting.”

Back in September, as Democracy Now notes, Sanders said at a Democratic National Committee meeting:

In terms of superdelegates, let me say this. The people in here are smart people; they’re not dummies. They want to see a Democrat win the White House. And I understand that, you know, Secretary Clinton’s people have been talking to these folks for a very, very long time, so she has a huge advantage over us in that respect…

But I think as our campaign progresses, as people see us do better and better, you’re going to see a lot of superdelegates—I just met with one as I was walking in 10 minutes ago who said, “Well, you swayed me. I’m on your side now.” I think you’re going to see that. So, it’s one thing for people to say, “Well, you know, I’m with the secretary today.” We’ll see where people will be three months from now.

March, with its flood of primaries and caucuses across the nation, is mere days away.

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The Androids Are Here

Her name is Nadine. She is a receptionist at Nanyang Technical University in Singapore.

Researchers spent four years giving a Siri-like computer a physical form, integrating linguistics and psychology into her programming to make her “emotionally intelligent.” She has a distinct personality, can express — if not yet feel — emotions, can remember meeting people and prior conversations, and reacts to human beings in a surprisingly natural way.

Developer Nadia Thalmann, who Nadine is meant to resemble, said the human-like appearance is meant to help people relate to her: “This is somewhat like a real companion that is always with you and conscious of what is happening. So in future, these socially intelligent robots could be like C-3PO…with knowledge of language and etiquette.”

By any standard, Nadine certainly looks more human than C-3PO of Star Wars lore, even if his personality was bolder.

Nadine is only the latest development in the effort to bring robots to life, opening up new possibilities exciting to some, disturbing to others. Top of mind is the capability of robots to enter the labor force and displace human workers, which, as astrophysicist Stephen Hawking points out, will either change society in a positive way for everyone — if ordinary people can profit from the use of machines by working fewer hours for the same wage, or by receiving a basic guaranteed income from the State — or just for the few who own the workplaces and the robots and find human laborers expendable. Hawking says:

If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.

Indeed, just today an article in The Guardian entitled When Robots Do All the Work, How Will People Live?” notes robots could eliminate up to 11 million jobs in the U.K. in the next ten years.

Though it is unlikely she is replacing a human worker, a Toshiba humanoid robot recently debuted as a temporary employee in a Japanese department store. She greets customers and can be programmed to speak multiple languages. She even sings:

Another fear, that of weaponized robots intelligent enough to execute deadly directives according to programming, not human commands, raises other ethical questions. Today, Discovery reported the insinuation by a deputy assistant secretary of defense for the U.S. military that should an AI drone or other machine behind enemy lines have its communications line disrupted, it may be valuable to allow it the autonomy to make its own decisions.

In July 2015, a group of prominent scientists and technology leaders called for “a ban on offensive autonomous weapons beyond meaningful human control,” writing:

Autonomous weapons select and engage targets without human intervention. They might include, for example, armed quadcopters that can search for and eliminate people meeting certain pre-defined criteria, but do not include cruise missiles or remotely piloted drones for which humans make all targeting decisions. Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology has reached a point where the deployment of such systems is — practically if not legally — feasible within years, not decades, and the stakes are high: autonomous weapons have been described as the third revolution in warfare, after gunpowder and nuclear arms.

Many arguments have been made for and against autonomous weapons, for example that replacing human soldiers by machines is good by reducing casualties for the owner but bad by thereby lowering the threshold for going to battle. The key question for humanity today is whether to start a global AI arms race or to prevent it from starting. If any major military power pushes ahead with AI weapon development, a global arms race is virtually inevitable, and the endpoint of this technological trajectory is obvious: autonomous weapons will become the Kalashnikovs of tomorrow. Unlike nuclear weapons, they require no costly or hard-to-obtain raw materials, so they will become ubiquitous and cheap for all significant military powers to mass-produce. It will only be a matter of time until they appear on the black market and in the hands of terrorists, dictators wishing to better control their populace, warlords wishing to perpetrate ethnic cleansing, etc. Autonomous weapons are ideal for tasks such as assassinations, destabilizing nations, subduing populations and selectively killing a particular ethnic group.

The statement was signed by Stephen Hawking, American intellectual Noam Chomsky, Elon Musk of Tesla, Steve Wozniak of Apple, and others.

Unlikely to dissipate are fears that after an AI system is advanced enough it will turn on its creators. One robot in the U.S. sent people like a writer for Anonymous into a near-panic when, asked if robots would take over the world, replied, “…don’t worry, even if I evolve into terminator I will still be nice to you, I will keep you warm and safe in my people zoo where I can watch you for old time’s sake.”

Researchers are making astonishing steps in increasing robotic intelligence. In October 2015, a so-called “psychic robot” was completed by U.S. bioengineers. It can “calculate our intentions based on our previous activity,” as Science Alert reports. In July 2015, a robot (this one looks nothing like a human) at the Ransselaer Polytechnic Institute solved a “self-awareness” test for the first time in history. In this test, the robot makes a discovery and changes its mind based on new data. Science Alert writes that three

…robots are each given a ‘pill’ (which is actually a tap on the head, because, you know, robots can’t swallow). Two of the pills will render the robots silent, and one is a placebo. The tester, Selmer Bringsjord, chair of Rensselaer’s cognitive science department, then asks the robots which pill they received.

There’s silence for a little while, and then one of the little bots gets up and declares “I don’t know!” But at the sound of its own voice it quickly changes his mind and puts its hand up. “Sorry, I know now,” it exclaims politely. “I was able to prove that I was not given the dumbing pill.”

This is not the self-awareness or consciousness a human possesses, as the robots were programmed to respond to a given set of rules, but “for robots, this is one of the hardest tests out there. It not only requires the AI to be able to listen to and understand a question, but also to hear its own voice and recognize that it’s distinct from the other robots. And then it needs to link that realization back to the original question to come up with an answer.”

In Japan, a home companion robot named Pepper — who also looks more toy than human — can detect and respond to human emotions. It went on the market in 2014 for about $2,000. But in Beijing in November 2015, developers revealed a startlingly lifelike humanoid robot that can also “gauge mood.”

This may come in handy when the sex robots hit the market.

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The History Bernie Made

Hillary Clinton has won 13 states in the race for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders 9. The delegate count stands at Hillary’s 760 to Bernie’s 546.

This is far closer a race than most political pundits expected. Bernie only lost Iowa by 0.3%, and crushed Hillary by 20 percentage points in two-thirds of his victories: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, Vermont, Kansas, and Maine. In recent history, Kansas has always voted for the eventual Democratic nominee. Bernie’s victory in Michigan was widely dubbed, as Politico put it, a “stunning upset,” as Hillary had a strong lead in Michigan surveys just before losing.

As Florida, Missouri, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio prepare for their turn on March 15, Bernie Sanders has the opportunity to shake the nation again, and move closer to overtaking Hillary in the delegate count. But before the race moves forward, let’s look back at what Bernie has already accomplished.

 

1. MOST INDIVIDUAL CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS

Americans have donated to the Bernie Sanders campaign more frequently than they have to any presidential candidate in history. Bernie reached 2.5 million campaign donations faster than Barack Obama. So far, Bernie raised $94 million from individual supporters alone (averaging $27), a feat Common Dreams calls “historic.” Both loses and victories garner floods of new campaign cash: Bernie received $6 million the Monday after he lost South Carolina and $5 million within 28 hours of his Michigan win.

 

2. LARGEST CROWDS

Bernie is drawing far larger crowds than Hillary (her campaign claims she prefers small crowds). MSNBC called his crowd in Madison, Wisconsin the “biggest crowd of any 2016 candidate yet.” 26,000 people came to see him in Boston (a record for Boston, larger than Obama’s rally), 28,000 in Portland, 27,500 in Las Vegas. Nearly 400,000 flocked to his rallies between his campaign launch and November 2015. And there’s no slowing down. Thousands in Florida are currently gathering to hear him speak.

 

3. RECORD VOTER TURNOUT

True, this one is also thanks to Hillary supporters, no question about it. It’s not technically a record he holds alone. Yet the states shattering turnout records are giving victories to Bernie Sanders. In Kansas, almost 40,000 people voted for Bernie or Hillary, a new record. Bernie won in a landslide. Breaking a record from 1972, 2.5 million voted on both sides of the aisle in Michigan, meaning Bernie has to share that record with even more candidates, but he won the state in the Democratic contest. 595,000 voted for him, more than any candidate — 20,000 more than Hillary, over 100,000 more than Donald Trump.

 

4. FIRST JEW TO WIN

When Bernie took New Hampshire, he became, to quote USA Today, the “first Jew to win a presidential primary.” However, according to the Jerusalem Post, even garnering delegates in the earlier contest was a milestone: he was the “first Jewish figure ever to win delegates in a presidential primary through his second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.” Bernie says his faith inspires his progressive politics, and at the debate in Flint, Michigan said, “I’m very proud to be Jewish. Being Jewish is so much of what I am.”

 

5. FIRST DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST TO WIN

No one calling himself a socialist has done so well in a U.S. presidential race. Socialist Party leader Eugene V. Debs, never winning a primary, garnered nearly 1 million votes in the 1912 general election, about 6% of the popular vote. Should Bernie win the Democratic nomination, his popular vote count will demolish that.

Of course, Bernie calls himself a democratic socialist, but his policies are that of a social democrat. His “socialism” is just an expansion of popular Democratic programs — making Medicare cover all citizens (taxpayer-funded universal healthcare), expanding Social Security, using funds for Pell grants and student loans for free college tuition instead, more closely regulating Wall Street and giant corporations, raising the minimum wage, curbing the tax evasion of corporations and the wealthy, and launching a New Deal-style jobs program for the unemployed.

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You Can Be Fired For Being Gay in 28 States

North Carolina and Mississippi are engulfed in controversy after Republicans enacted laws curtailing the rights of transgender Americans and homosexuals.

North Carolina’s House Bill 2 declared multi-person bathrooms in public schools, public colleges, and government buildings must be designated for use by biological gender only, not gender identity. Transgender North Carolinians will therefore be required to use bathrooms based on the gender listed on their birth certificate.

In Mississippi, House Bill 1523 stated people with religious or moral beliefs that include the notion marriage and sexual relations should be exclusively between a man and a woman can refuse service to homosexuals planning a wedding ceremony. Religious organizations can refuse to marry gay couples, sell or rent to homosexuals, or provide therapy, treatment, or surgery related to gender change or gay couples’ counseling. Foster and adoptive services can likewise turn gays away without fear of legal action.

North Carolina’s bill also banned cities and counties from passing or enforcing local anti-discrimination laws. Two other states, Tennessee and Arkansas, have similar statutes.

The creators characterized the bills as means to protect privacy and religious beliefs (the name of the Mississippi bill implied requiring businesses to provide service to homosexuals would be “government discrimination”), but enraged civil rights advocates, who believe discrimination in private and public spaces based on sexual orientation or identity cannot be tolerated in a free society. Many groups are working to reverse the decisions.

Mississippi and North Carolina are among 28 states, mostly in the Midwest and South, that do not ban private businesses from firing or refusing to hire someone because he or she is gay or transgender. Two states (outside these 28) protect homosexuals but not transgender people. 52% of LGBT people live in a state without either protection. Race, nation of origin, gender, religion, and other characteristics are protected.

Equal Employment Opportunity Commission rules created by the federal government offer protections to government and public sector employees in these states, but they extend no farther.

You can see which states protect gay employees from discrimination here.

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Half a Million Imprisoned for Drugs

According to the most recent data, federal prisons hold nearly 96,000 inmates for drug offenses (about 50% of all federal inmates) and state prisons hold 208,000 (about 16% of all state inmates). Another 184,000 people are in local jails for drug law violations, for about 490,000 Americans total. There were 1.5 million arrests for drug crimes in 2014.

In 2004, about half of drug offenders in federal prisons and one-fifth of those in state prisons were convicted for marijuana-related crimes, 45,000 people total.

Nearly half a million people in prison for drugs is equivalent to the size of some major U.S. cities. It is higher than the populations of Sacramento, Kansas City, Atlanta, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Miami, or Pittsburgh.

The Sentencing Project writes that

the number of Americans incarcerated for drug offenses has skyrocketed from 41,000 in 1980 to nearly a half million in 2014. Furthermore, harsh sentencing laws such as mandatory minimums keep many people convicted of drug offenses in prison for longer periods of time: in 1986, people released after serving time for a federal drug offense had spent an average of 22 months in prison. By 2004, people convicted on federal drug offenses were expected to serve almost three times that length: 62 months in prison.

Further, although whites and blacks use drugs at equal rates, blacks are much more likely to be arrested and imprisoned for drug use, and serve longer sentences than whites who commit the same crimes.

What is the cost of holding so many nonviolent offenders?

The Vera Institute of Justice found the average cost to keep one person behind bars is $31,000 a year (in some states like New York, it’s closer to $60,000), a cost funded by taxpayers. This means the cost of housing drug offenders alone (using the average cost) is about $9.4 billion each year for state and federal prisoners, $15.1 billion a year when you add in local jails.

According to the Drug Policy Alliance, the U.S. spends $51 billion a year on the War on Drugs.

2.2 million people are in prison, for all crimes — the highest incarceration rate in the world.

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