Author Archives: G.S. Griffin

Should We Talk About How Trauma Affects Police Behavior?

Posted on by under Race Relations

In the discussion of police brutality, generally speaking, one camp calls for sweeping, radical, even terminal changes to policing in order to end beatings and killings of civilians, while the other camp stresses that police officers have extremely dangerous, high-stress jobs and, while mistakes do occur at times, certain changes will only make things more dangerous for cops and for the public at large. There’s some talking past each other here, but perhaps one of the more significant things that is missed or simply isn’t much discussed is how these ideas are connected: of course people who go through trauma might be more likely to snap and murder someone for no reason at all.

A couple clarifications here. First, many on the Left will have little sympathy for the police no matter how traumatized someone might be by seeing dead bodies, blood and brains splattered about, raped children, and beaten wives, or by being shot at or otherwise attacked. After all, individuals who join police forces do so by choice, participate (whether aware of it or not) in an oppressive system that ensures the constant harassment and mistreatment of people of color, and so on. For some of my comrades, talking about how officer trauma might contribute to police brutality would be a major faux pas, offering excuses or a sympathetic ear to the other side in a rather uncomfortable way. Yet if police trauma does exist, and if it does contribute in some way to police brutality, it makes sense to think about it, discuss it, and figure out what to do about it. Sympathy isn’t required. Second, it should be clarified that acknowledging trauma as a possible cause of police violence doesn’t mean other causes, such as racism, machismo and power, poor training and use of force procedures, age, a dearth of education, complete lack of punishment, and so forth don’t exist and have devastating effects on society. (Another one is the human tendency to mistakenly see things you’re watching for. If you’re speeding and watching for cops, every other car begins to look like a cop. If you’re watching for guns or threatening movements from someone you’ve pulled over…) Finally, a discussion like this one isn’t meant to distract or deflect from the terrible trauma that victims of police violence live with for the rest of their lives. If there is a way we can stop one trauma from leading to another, we should pursue it.

We know officers’ experiences contribute to PTSD and other serious psychological and physiological problems. “Research has indicated that by the time police officers put on their uniform and begin general patrol, their stress-related cardiovascular reactivity is already elevated,” and this is followed by, generally speaking, “at least 900 potentially traumatic incidents over the course of their career.” Some officers will have bigger problems, if they came from the military and were traumatized in the bloodbath of war. Extreme stress and PTSD can lead to aggression and exaggerated startle response and recklessness; in police officers it’s been shown to lead to less control in decision-making “due to heightened arousal to threats, inability to screen out interfering information, or the inability to keep attention.” Academics in The Huffington Post and Psychology Today have connected occupational trauma to brutality, as have former officers on fervent pro-cop sites (for example, could reforms addressing trauma “reduce the number of inappropriate decisions some officers make? If we are concerned about the dysfunctional actions of some cops, is it possible that some of the fault lies with the rest of us who ignore the trauma that officers go through?”). More research would be valuable, but it’s a safe bet police trauma contributes to police brutality. (A connection also exists, by the way, between officer stress and violence against their romantic partners.)

This writer doesn’t have too much more to say on the matter — it simply seems important to connect the two ideas mentioned in the first paragraph, especially for those of us who care about justice and about encouraging others of very different views to care as well. “True, the police have dangerous jobs, but do you see how the extreme stress that most officers experience might make police brutality a serious problem? Perhaps there are other factors, too. Perhaps there are societal changes we can make that would address both officer PTSD or safety and police brutality against ordinary people.” It could be a way to build a bridge or find a sliver of common ground.

How to actually address such trauma will range wildly, of course, from the reactionary, though valid, sentiments from police departments about the need for more mental healthcare to the radical (“Radical simply means grasping things at the root,” Angela Davis) idea that we “Abolish the Police.” After all, no police means no police trauma. And no police brutality. Convincing people that trauma contributes to brutality seems far easier than agreement on how to solve these things.

This is a bit of an aside, but I’m still determining where I personally fall when it comes to what to specifically do about the police. I firmly believe that broad changes are needed concerning: who responds to certain nonviolent calls (it need not be quasi-soldiers, at least not as first responders); the allocation of resources, with reform devoting huge sums into addressing the root causes of crime, namely poverty, instead of into policing and other initiatives that only address the symptoms; the qualifications, education, training, evaluation, use of force procedures, and weaponry of those who respond to violent calls; what an individual can be pulled over or confronted or arrested for, just serious changes to law and policy; who investigates police misconduct (not the departments) and how abusive officers are punished, beginning with termination and blacklisting and ending with prison sentences; and much more. These things, perhaps combined with better mental healthcare and therapy, reduced hours, increased leave, shorter careers, and so forth for those facing traumatic situations, can reduce both the trauma and violence. (Although I don’t recall the specific incident, in the news a few years ago there was a report about how the officer who killed an unarmed black man in the evening had witnessed a murder or suicide that morning; taking him off duty seems like it would have been an obvious thing to do.) But I do suspect that modern societies will always have some traumatic situations and need individuals to enter them, whether it’s the police or something resembling the police. Perhaps more personal study is needed. I recently asked of my acquaintances:

I haven’t studied #PoliceAbolition or #PrisonAbolition theory with any depth. Currently, it seems likely to me that future human societies — more decent ones, with prosperity for all, unarmed response teams, restorative justice, and more — would still require some persons or groups authorized to use force against others in circumstances where de-escalation fails, and require some persons to be separated against their will from the general population, for the sake of its safety, during rehabilitation. These scenarios seem likely to be far rarer when we radically transform social conditions and societal policies, but not disappear completely. Can anyone recommend abolitionist literature that either 1) specifically makes the case that such circumstances would never occur and thus such force requirements are void, or 2) that argues such circumstances would indeed occur but specifically lays out how such requirements could be handled (force could be used) by alternative people or institutions without, over time, devolving back into something close to today’s police and prisons.

My mind may change as I go through some of the recommended readings, but as it stands I wonder if the number of individuals authorized to use force, their trauma, and their brutality can only be greatly reduced, rather than eradicated completely. While a better human society is possible and will be won, a perfect one may be out of reach.

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On Student Teaching

Posted on by under Politics

I am now two weeks from concluding my first student teaching placement (Visitation School), and my classroom management skills are still being refined. After observing for five days, slowly beginning my integration into a leadership role, I took over completely from my cooperating teacher. While excited to start, initially I had a couple days where I found one 6th grade class (my homeroom) difficult to control. There were times when other classes stepped out of line, naturally, but the consistency with which my homeroom became noisy and rowdy was discouraging.

“They’re your homeroom,” my cooperating teacher reminded me. “They feel more at home in your classroom, and will try to get away with more.”

There were a few instances where students took someone else’s property, or wrote notes to classmates, but the side chatter was the major offense. I would be attempting to teach and each table would have at least someone making conversation, which obviously distracts both those who wish to pay attention and those who don’t care. I would ask them to refocus and quiet themselves, which would work for but a few precious moments. There was one day I remember I felt very much as if the students were controlling me, rather than the other way around, and I made the mistake of hesitating when I could have doled out consequences. I spoke to my cooperating teacher about it during our feedback session, and she emphasized to me that I needed to prove to the students my willingness to enforce the policies, that I have the same authority as any other teacher in the building.

At Visitation, their classroom management system revolves around “tallies,” one of which equals three laps at recess before one can begin play. My homeroom deserved a tally the day I hesitated. I needed to come up with a concrete, consistent way of disciplining disruptive behavior. So I went home and developed a simple system I had thought about a long time ago: behavior management based on soccer. I cut out and laminated a yellow card and a red card. The next day, I sat each class down in the hall before they entered the room, and told them the yellow card would be shown to them as a warning, the red card as tallies. These could be given individually or as a class, and, like soccer, a red card could be given without a yellow card.

The students were surprisingly excited about this. Perhaps turning punishment into a game intrigued them; regardless, it made me wonder if this would work. But it seemed discussing the expectations I had of them, and the enforcement of such expectations, helped a good deal. Further, I was able to overcome my hesitation that day and dole out consequences for inappropriate behavior. My homeroom I gave a yellow card and then a red card, and they walked laps the next day.

My cooperating teacher noted the system would be effective because it was visual for the students. I also found that it allowed me to easily maintain emotional control; instead of raising my voice, I simply raised a card in my hand, and the class refocused. Its visibility allowed me to say nothing at all.

While containing a different purpose and practice, this system draws important elements from the Do It Again system educator Doug Lemov describes, including no administrative follow-up and logical consequences, but most significantly group accountability (Lemov, 2010, p. 192). It holds an entire class responsible for individual actions, and “builds incentives for individuals to behave positively since it makes them accountable to their peers as well as their teacher” (p. 192). Indeed, my classes almost immediately started regulating themselves, keeping themselves accountable for following my expectations (telling each other to be quiet and settle down, for instance, before I had to say anything).

Lemov would perhaps frown upon the yellow card, and point to the behavioral management technique called No Warning (p. 199). He suggests teachers:

  • Act early. Try to see the favor you are doing kids in catching off-task behavior early and using a minor intervention of consequence to prevent a major consequence later.
  • Act reliably. Be predictably consistent, sufficient to take the variable of how you will react out of the equation and focus students on the action that precipitated your response.
  • Act proportionately. Start small when the misbehavior is small; don’t go nuclear unless the situation is nuclear.

I have tried to follow these guidelines to the best of my ability, but Lemov would say the warning is not taking action, only telling students “a certain amount of disobedience will not only be tolerated but is expected” (p. 200). He would say students will get away with what they can until they are warned, and will only refocus and cease their side conversations afterwards. Lemov makes a valid point, and I have indeed seen this happen to a degree. As a whole, however, the system has been effective, and most of my classes do not at all take advantage of their warning. Knowing they can receive a consequence without a warning has helped, perhaps. After a month of using the cards, I have given my homeroom a red card three times. In my other five classes combined during the same period, there have been two yellows and only one red. I have issued a few individual yellows, but no reds.

Perhaps it is counterproductive to have a warning, but I personally feel that since the primary focus of the system is on group accountability, I need to give talkative students a chance to correct their behavior before consequences are doled out for the entire class. Sometimes a reminder is necessary, the reminder that their actions affect their classmates and that they need to refocus. I do not want to punish the students who are not being disruptive along with those who are without issuing some sort of warning that they are on thin ice.

***

During my two student teaching placements this semester, I greatly enjoyed getting to know my students. It was one of the more rewarding aspects of teaching. Introducing myself and my interests in detail on the first day I arrived proved to be an excellent start; I told them I liked history, soccer, drawing, reading, etc. Building relationships was easy, as students seemed fascinated by me and had an endless array of questions about who I was and where I came from.

Art is something I used to connect with students. At both my schools, the first students I got to know were the budding artists, as I was able to observe them sketching in the corners of their notebooks and later ask to see their work. There was one girl at my first placement who drew a new breed of horse on the homeroom whiteboard each morning; a boy at my second placement was drawing incredible fantasy figures every spare second he had. I was the same way when I was their age, so naturally I struck up conversations about their pictures. I tried to take advantage of such an interest by asking students to draw posters of Hindu gods or sketch images next to vocabulary words to aid recall. Not everyone likes to draw, but I like to encourage the skill and at least provide them an opportunity to try. Beyond this, I would use what novels students had with them to learn about their fascinations and engage them, and many were excited I knew The Hunger Games, The Hobbit, and The Lord of the Rings. We would discuss our favorite characters and compare such fiction to recent films.

For all my students, I strove to engage them each day with positive behavior, including greeting them by name at the door, drawing with and for them, laughing and joking with them, maintaining a high level of interest in what students were telling me (even if they rambled aimlessly, as they had the tendency to do) and even twice playing soccer with them at recess. The Catholic community of my first placement also provided the chance to worship and pray with my kids, an experience I will not forget.

One of my successes was remaining emotionally cool, giving students a sense of calm, confidence, and control about me. Marzano (2007) writes, “It is important to keep in mind that emotional objectivity does not imply being impersonal with or cool towards students. Rather, it involves keeping a type of emotional distance from the ups and downs of classroom life and not taking students’ outbursts or even students’ direct acts of disobedience personally” (p. 152). Even when I was feeling control slipping away from me, I did my best to be calm, keep my voice low, and correct students in a respectful manner that reminded them they had expectations they needed to meet. Lemov (2010) agrees, writing, “An emotionally constant teacher earns students’ trust in part by having them know he is always under control. Most of all, he knows success is in the long run about a student’s consistent relationship with productive behaviors” (p. 219). Building positive relationships required mutual respect and trust, and emotional constancy was key.

Another technique I emphasized was the demonstration of my passion for social studies, to prove to them the gravity of my personal investment in their success. One lesson from my first placement covered the persecution of Anne Hutchinson in Puritan America; we connected it to modern sexism, such as discrimination against women in terms of wage earnings. Another lesson was about racism, how it originated as a justification for African slavery and how the election of Barack Obama brought forth a surge of openly racist sentiment from part of the U.S. citizenry. I told them repeatedly that we studied history to become dissenters and activists, people who would rise up and destroy sexism and racism. I told them I had a personal stake in their understanding of such material, a personal stake in their future, because they were the ones responsible for changing our society in positive ways. Being the next generation, ending social injustices would soon be up to them.

Marzano (2007) says, “Arguably the quality of the relationships teachers have with students is the keystone of effective management and perhaps even the entirety of teaching” (p. 149). In my observation experiences, I saw burnt out and bitter teachers, who focused their efforts on authoritative control and left positive relationship-building on the sideline. The lack of strong relationships usually meant more chaotic classrooms and more disruptive behavior. As my career begins, I plan to make my stake in student success and my compassion for each person obvious, and stay in the habit.

For more from the author, subscribe and follow or read his books. 

References

Lemov, D. (2010). Teach like a champion: 49 techniques that put students on the path to college. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

Marzano, R. (2007). The art and science of teaching. Alexandria, VA: Association for Supervision and Curriculum Development.

Cop Car Explodes, Police Pepper Spray Passenger in Moving Vehicle During Plaza Protests

Posted on by under Race Relations

The events of 10:00pm to midnight on May 30, 2020 on Kansas City’s Plaza — protests and unrest following the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis — included the following. 

The police, in riot gear and gas masks, blockaded the intersections along Ward Parkway, refusing to allow newcomers, additional protesters, to move deeper into the Plaza, angering a small but growing crowd. “Let us through!” Journalists likewise were not allowed to enter. From the vantage point at the blockade, it was clear a gathering of protesters was locked in a standoff with police up around 47th and Wyandotte Street. The sound of helicopters, sirens, police radios and bullhorns, and protesters’ shouts clashed in the air. Sharp pops. The protesters inside fled west as one, as police dispersed tear gas. Much concern was voiced from the crowd at the barrier.

After a time, an explosion rocked the Plaza. “Shit!” exclaimed members of the crowd, among variations — and even the police could not help but turn their heads away from the masses and look. It appeared a parked car, near where the standoff occurred, had been firebombed. The press later indicated it was a police car. “It’s going down, boy,” someone said. Flames and smoke rose high, and shortly thereafter fire fighters arrived. Meanwhile, a man, tall and skinny, yelled at the police at the barrier, saying he was a veteran who fought for the rights the police trample upon — “You’re a fucking disgrace.” Two women likewise unleashed their anger.

Walking west along Ward Parkway, in an attempt to follow the group of runners from afar, revealed a bridal shop window smashed. Some jokes from observers about black people wanting to get married tonight — though there did not appear to be anything looted. A young woman and man huddled together nearby, the woman distraught over the scene. Soon the pair entered the store through the front door, quickly followed by a shouting cop. “She owns the place, man, it’s all right,” the observers said. The pair echoed this, and the cop recommended finding someone to board up the window. Various other storefronts were boarded up, in advance, along the street.

“I’m just trying to get to my fucking car,” a passerby said to an acquaintance, realizing he could not enter the parking garage due to the blockades. In the street, gas canisters, COVID-19 masks, abandoned signs, water bottles, graffiti. Another broken storefront window, more graffiti. A fire department vehicle with a smashed windshield. A black woman thanking a cop for being out tonight doing his job.

Reaching Broadway, where one could finally turn north, showed a few people arrested and sitting on the pavement outside the Capital Grille at the feet of the police. They did not seem a part of the fleeing protesters, and may have been taken out of their cars, which were along the street, doors open. Moving north, one met the protesters, now all scattered and disjointed, many moving south but some further west and some simply hanging out here and there. The faint sting of tear gas infected the eyes. Strangers made sure one was all right.

“H&M!” a man hollered triumphantly, a valuable bundle in his hands, before three cops on bikes appeared from nowhere, sirens blasting. The man and several other looters sprinted south down Broadway, pursued.

The central Plaza secured, the main confrontation point became the blockade where the crowd witnessed the car explosion, Ward Parkway and Wyandotte. The group grew considerably, to a few hundred, swelled by the protesters that had fled the tear gas a block north. It was young, diverse. The ranks of police were reinforced as well.

Protesters gathered in Ward Parkway, signs held high: “I Can’t Breathe,” “Black Lives Matter.” A few cars zipped around wildly in circles, as if to emphasize the protesters’ control of the street. A white car with four or five people in it pulled up and distributed water, while also providing the tunes. A dance circle formed for a time, while both sides held their ground. Skateboards, scooters shot by. A more festive atmosphere. A chant began — no justice, no peace. But mostly individuals had their say — calls for an end to police killings and abuse.

Eventually the police ordered the protesters to clear the streets and return to the sidewalks or face arrest. The street was full of people, but most were already there. The police seemed to select one individual to make an example of, and surged toward a white man with a sign, arresting him. Their orders ignored, the police pressed forward. Someone threw a water bottle at them. The police shook their gas cans ominously. “Scary ass motherfuckers,” a young woman said. Another woman was arrested. A man hollered, “The police started as slave-catchers! Not much has changed.” “You don’t have to do what your superiors say,” someone called out. Some taunted the black officers, the so-labeled “Uncle Toms.”

The police surged forward, pepper spray raised. A protester threw a brick or rock at them as everyone scrambled in retreat, by foot, scooter, or vehicle. The white car that had delivered water was in trouble, needing to back up toward the police in order to get out of its space and flee. Several officers walked up to the vehicle menacingly. “They’re going, they’re going!” shouted protesters. “Leave them alone!” An officer sprayed into the face of someone in the back seat as the vehicle backed up and lurched forward, the driver clearly panicked.

After pushing their line forward, the police then retreated back to their original position. The crowd then began moving forward, back to theirs.

The police announced that gas would be used if the crowd did not disperse, which the crowd had no interest in doing. The hiss of gas pierced the night air as cans were thrown, grey smoke billowing and streaking behind them. Pandemonium. Screams and shouts as all turned and ran, except for one brave soul who threw a can back. The tear gas burned, blinded. The police, marching forward, were quickly obscured, swallowed by smoke and distance, as the protesters splintered into three masses and fled east, south, and west.

The tear gas appeared to end the Plaza protest — by midnight the crowd had not reformed. However, a woman, leaning out the passenger window of a car moving down Ward Parkway, called out, “We’re going to Westport!”

The time is 3:40am on Sunday, May 31, 2020. Three of the four officers involved in George Floyd’s death have yet to be arrested.

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Capitalism and Coronavirus

Posted on by under Socialism

A collection of thoughts on capitalist society during the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak:

On Necessity

The coronavirus makes clear more than ever why America needs socialism.

  • Many people don’t have paid sick leave and can’t go without a paycheck, so they go to work sick with the virus, spreading it. Workers should own their workplaces so they can decide for themselves whether they get paid sick leave.
  • Businesses are closing, leaving workers to rot, with no income but plenty of bills to pay. People forced to go into work have to figure out how to pay for childcare, since schools are closed. Kids are hungry because they rely on school for meals. We need a Universal Basic Income.
  • Without health insurance, lots of people won’t get tested or treated because they can’t afford it. There will be more people infected. There will be many senseless, avoidable deaths. We need universal healthcare, medical care for all people.
  • The bold steps needed to address this crisis won’t be taken, even if the majority of Americans want it to be so, because our representatives serve the interests of wealthy and corporate funders. We need participatory democracy, where the people have decision-making power.

This virus shines a glaring, painful light at the stupidities of free market capitalism, which is at this very moment encouraging the spread of a deadly disease and spelling financial ruin for ordinary people.

The current crisis screams for the need to build a new world.

On Purity

Imagine a deadly virus (this one or far worse) in a truly free market society:

  • Many businesses (and perhaps schools, all private) choosing to stay open to make profits, spreading the contagion. No closure orders.
  • As other businesses choose to close, and workers everywhere refuse to work, paychecks and jobs vanish, with no government unemployment or stimulus checks to help. Aid from nonprofits and foundations, donations from individuals and businesses, is all a hopeless drop in the ocean relative to the need.
  • No bailouts and stimulus funds for businesses. Small and large companies alike collapsing — worsening unemployment. Monopolization increases faster.
  • Infected persons dying because they can’t afford testing, treatment, or healthcare coverage (think the U.S.) in general. Healthcare providers have to profit, there are no free lunches — there’s no government aid on its way. Restricted access to healthcare for citizens, through low income or job (benefit) loss, means a faster spread of the virus.
  • Would a government devoted to a fully free market society issue stay-at-home orders? If not, more people out and about, a wider spread.

A truly free market would make any pandemic a thousand times worse. A higher body count, a worse economic disaster.

On Distribution

Grocery stores are currently reminding us how slowly the law of supply-and-demand can function.

On Redistribution

In theory, seizing all wealth from the rich and redistributing it to the masses may be the only way to prevent societal collapse during a pandemic (whether this one or a far deadlier one).

80% of Americans possess less than 15% of the wealth in this country, just drastic inequality. If a pandemic leads to mass closings of workplaces and the eradication of jobs, the State must step in to support the people and subsidize incomes. Without this, people lose access to food, water, housing, everything, and disaster ensues. However, in such a situation, government revenues will fall — less individual and corporate income to tax, sales tax revenue dwindling as people buy less, and so on. It is conceivable that the State, during a plague lasting years, would eventually lack the funds it needs. Solutions like borrowing from other nations might prove impossible, if the pandemic is global and other nations are experiencing the same shortfalls. The only solution may be to tax the rich (and wealthy, non-essential corporations) out of existence, allowing the State to continue supporting people.

(This may only stave off disaster, however. There will be diminishing returns if taxes on essential companies and landlords are too low. State money would be given to people, who would give it to a businesses, which would only give small portions back to the State. The situation would likely then require appropriating most or even all of the revenue received from businesses that are still operating, and sending it back to the consumers.)

On Insanity

A pandemic causing people to lose their healthcare (via job or income loss)… Insane.

On Collapse

During the COVID-19 crisis, we’ve seen jokes about how prosperous corporations suddenly on the verge of bankruptcy really should have been more careful with their money — buying less avocado toast, for instance. Having funds set aside for emergencies, taking on less debt, etc. Then they wouldn’t have gone from prosperous to desperate after mere weeks of fewer customers.

But businesses keeping next to nothing in the bank is inherent to capitalism. This is not exclusively the case, as some firms do see the wisdom of keeping cash reserves for hard times and large corporations do grow rich enough and monopolize markets enough to focus on stockpiling cash, but it is a general trend of the system. In the frenzied competition of the market, keeping money stored away is generally a competitive disadvantage. Every extra dime must be poured back into the business to keep growing, keep gaining market share, keep displacing competitors. If you’re not injecting everything back into the business, you risk falling behind and being crushed by the firms that are.

“It can’t wait,” John Steinbeck wrote in The Grapes of Wrath. “It’ll die… When the monster stops growing, it dies. It can’t stay one size.”

The competition that pushes firms forward in ordinary times can be their downfall in times of economic crisis.

On Outside Factors

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the fact that poverty is caused by many factors beyond one’s control. For example, unemployment as a direct result of a deadly virus and government action. Perhaps being unemployed has something to do with the current availability of jobs, the needs of capitalists in the moment, rather than ordinary people’s laziness and sloth.

On Socialized Medicine

The vaccine is a lovely example of how socialized medicine works (in other democracies and our own, with Medicare/Medicaid).

Companies create healthcare treatments people need, hospitals and clinics get them (usually they purchase them, rather than governments doing so and distributing), citizens have many options of providers to visit to get the treatments and thus make that choice, and the bill is sent straight to the government — the tax wealth of a nation ensures everyone has access to the care they need for a healthy, full life. This service is hugely popular in other nations and is often taken for granted.

Jokes about limited supplies and wait lists are about to expire (soon there will be enough vaccines for all), but that’s super instructive too. (We’ll put aside the fact that universal healthcare systems in other nations, while not perfect, don’t actually struggle with limited supplies or wait lists any more than the U.S., if you bother to do comparative research; again, these systems are far more popular in polls than our own, which would be odd if they were so terrible.) When treatments are limited, it makes sense to us to give them to the most vulnerable first. The rest of us can wait, give the vaccine to seniors first: we all recognize that as a more moral system than, say, those with enough money or the right job (with an insurer who won’t drop your ass to save a buck) get the treatment, everyone else can rot and die (the free market healthcare system). Treatments won’t always be limited, but when they are, providers (it’s not usually governments, but them too in crises) should prioritize by need, not wealth. That’s more ethical with the vaccine…why wouldn’t it be so with all forms of life-saving care?

On UBI

With Americans getting a taste of checks from the government, UBI’s future is bright.

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Bernie Will Win Iowa

Posted on by under Politics

Predicting the future isn’t something I make a habit of. It is a perilous activity, always involving a strong chance of being wrong and looking the fool. Yet sometimes, here and there, conditions unfold around us in a way that gives one enough confidence to hazard a prediction. I believe that Bernie Sanders will win Iowa today.

First, consider that Bernie is at the top of the polls. Polls aren’t always reliable predictors, and he’s neck-and-neck with an opponent in some of them, but it’s a good sign.

Second, Bernie raised the most money in Q4 of 2019 by far, a solid $10 million more than the second-place candidate, Pete Buttigieg. He has more individual donations at this stage than any candidate in American history, has raised the most overall in this campaign, and is among the top spenders in Iowa. (These analyses exclude billionaire self-funders Bloomberg and Steyer, who have little real support.) As with a rise in the polls, he has momentum like no one else.

Third, Bernie is the only candidate in this race who was campaigning in Iowa in 2016, which means more voter touches and repeat voter touches. This is Round 2 for him, an advantage — everyone else is in Round 1.

Next, don’t forget, Iowa in 2016 was nearly a tie between Bernie and Hillary Clinton. It was the closest result in the state’s caucus history; Hillary won just 0.3% more delegate equivalents. It’s probably safe to say Bernie is more well-known today, four years later — if he could tie then, he can win now.

Fifth, in Iowa in 2016, there were essentially two voting blocs: the Hillary Bloc and the Bernie Bloc. (There was a third but insignificant candidate.) These are the people who actually show up to caucus — what will they do now? I look at the Bernie Bloc as probably remaining mostly intact. He may lose some voters to Warren or others, as this field has more progressive options than last time, but I think his supporters’ fanatical passion and other voters’ interest in the most progressive candidate will mostly keep the Bloc together. The Hillary Bloc, of course, will be split between the many other candidates — leaving Bernie the victor. (Even if there is much higher turnout than in 2016, I expect the multitude of candidates to aid Bernie — and many of the new voters will go to him, especially if they’re young. An historic youth turnout is expected, and they mostly back Sanders.)

This last one is simply anecdotal. All candidates have devoted campaigners helping them. But I must say it. The best activists I know are on the case. They’ve put their Kansas City lives on hold and are in Iowa right now. The Kansas City Left has Bernie’s back, and I believe in them.

To victory, friends.

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